Ben Shelton set for tricky Dallas test against Adrian Mannarino, with Tommy Paul also in Round of 16 action

Ben Shelton looks to book a quarterfinal berth at the Dallas Open on Thursday, February 12, 2026 (ET), in a Round of 16 showdown with Adrian Mannarino that carries upset potential. Fellow American Tommy Paul faces Miomir Kecmanovic in the same stage as the home contingent aims to advance on a pivotal night.

Head-to-head and recent form tilt the danger toward Mannarino

On paper, Shelton’s higher ranking gives him the edge, yet the matchup history is anything but straightforward. Mannarino leads their head-to-head 3–1 and beat Shelton at the U.S. Open last summer in a match cut short when the American retired with an injury in the fourth set. The French veteran arrives in Dallas on the back of a strong week in Montpellier, where he reached the final, and he remains one of the most reliable performers in indoor conditions. Shelton, ranked ninth, meets a savvy opponent at No. 52 who is comfortable absorbing pace and redirecting it with minimal mistakes.

That combination—recent form, surface comfort, and familiarity with Shelton’s game—makes this a genuine test. While Shelton brings the crowd and the firepower, Mannarino brings the muscle memory of having navigated these exchanges successfully before.

Keys to the matchup: first strike vs. frictionless control

Shelton’s path runs through his serve and first-strike forehand. If he lands a high rate of first serves and finds his forehand early, he can take time away from Mannarino and keep rallies short. The American’s lefty delivery into the ad court will be a barometer: if he collects free points and short replies there, the scoreboard pressure will mount quickly.

For Mannarino, the mission is to keep Shelton hitting one more ball. His compact swings and flat trajectories stay low through the court, disrupting Shelton’s rhythm and forcing awkward contact points. Watch for the Frenchman’s ability to redirect pace down the line and his knack for neutralizing big serves with block returns. The more Mannarino stretches points into neutral exchanges, the more the matchup bends his way. Tie-breakers loom if neither player yields much on serve, but even there, Mannarino’s consistency can be a quiet separator.

What’s at stake Thursday (ET)

A quarterfinal spot is on the line, and for Shelton, it’s also a chance to flip a difficult head-to-head and erase the sting of last summer’s retirement. A win here would reinforce his status as the top seed among the home hopefuls this week and set up a path he can realistically ride deep into the weekend. For Mannarino, another victory over a top-10 opponent indoors would validate his Montpellier surge and underscore how tricky his style remains in closed-roof conditions.

With Dallas crowd energy behind both Americans on Thursday, Shelton’s shotmaking could feed off the atmosphere—but it also raises the stakes on managing momentum swings against one of the tour’s most unflappable competitors.

Paul favored against Kecmanovic as home slate stacks up

Tommy Paul, ranked No. 24, faces No. 66 Miomir Kecmanovic in a matchup he enters as a clear favorite. The head-to-head tilts slightly to Kecmanovic at 3–2, but recent form points toward the American. Paul opened the season with a semifinal in Adelaide and a Round of 16 run at the Australian Open, where he fell to the eventual champion. Kecmanovic, meanwhile, has struggled to a 1–4 start in 2026 prior to this week, though he did navigate his opener in Dallas against qualifier Sho Shimabukuro.

Market pricing on Thursday evening placed Paul roughly around a -400 mark, which implies about an 80% chance to advance. With the home crowd and cleaner momentum, he has a straightforward path if he maintains his baseline aggression and serve percentage.

Outlook: upset watch, but Shelton’s ceiling remains the wild card

There’s credible upset chatter around Shelton–Mannarino given the head-to-head and the Frenchman’s indoor pedigree. If Shelton’s serve dips or the forehand misfires under sustained pressure, Mannarino has the tools to turn this into a grind and steal the big points. Still, Shelton’s ceiling is unmistakable. If he protects serve and strikes early in rallies, he can compress the match and mute Mannarino’s rhythm, potentially in straight sets.

Expect long passages decided by serve holds and small margins. The first-set finish line should be pivotal: a tight opener earned by Shelton could unlock the shotmaking that makes him so dangerous; if Mannarino edges it, his control-and-counter brand may dictate the rest of the night. Either way, Shelton is staring down one of the week’s most nuanced tests.